Deploying EU observers cannot prevent war. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made such a confession today. Meanwhile, it was for this reason that Armenia agreed to the deployment of observers, so that when Azerbaijan attacked, it would not justify its attack with Armenia’s actions. Observers, in fact, can only record who attacked first. And that’s it.
“The probability of escalation is very high both along the RA border and in Nagorno-Karabakh,” Nikol Pashinyan said today. Naturally, the question arises: what will the RA government do? There is no answer to this question. Although there are several answers to the question: complete and total renunciation of Nagorno Karabakh, provision of the Meghri corridor without much discussion, even renunciation of Armenia’s sovereignty over Meghri. All such developments leave only one question unanswered: why do we need such a government?
Of course, escalation does not necessarily mean that Azerbaijan will succeed. It might even be bad for that country. But, judging by our rhetoric, we simply do not have internal resources to withstand such an escalation. Our “internal” resource is outside, that is, the West. Armenia is a member of the CSTO and has a Russian military base in Gyumri. And, under such conditions, he says, the probability of escalation is very high. Now, in this situation, can Armenia send to hell Russia with its military base and CSTO? It can: But the alternative to sending to hell is not visible. Pashinyan says that CSTO itself is leaving Armenia. Now, the CSTO is leaving, but the West is not coming. If the CSTO leaving, it also makes it clear that it will no longer interfere in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, or that it is by default on Azerbaijan’s side in this conflict. It is on Azerbaijan’s side, because today Russian gas enters Europe through Azerbaijan.
All this is understandable. It is also understandable that Europe also has thousands of ties to Azerbaijan. What is our hope in the face of increasing escalation? Only America remains, which essentially stopped the war on September 13 last year. But America stopped a war that had already started, but did not prevented it. As a result of that war, Azerbaijan came and stood 4.5 km away from Jermuk, Armenia.
Let’s put it this way: Armenia does not have internal resources to deescalate the situation, except to concede everything that Azerbaijan wants. If it concedes, what is the meaning of the current government? Besides, it violates the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, according to which our borders are inviolable. The anti-escalation significance of European observers seems to be failing. What remains to be done? The Armenian citizen does not have the answer to this question. Because the RA government too does not have an answer.
Mher Arshakyan